Desperation does strange things to political strategy. Right now, Reform UK is staring down the barrel of a crucial byelection in Makerfield, and its candidate, local plumber Robert Kenyon, just welcomed a glowing video endorsement from former SAS soldier and TV presenter Ant Middleton.
If you've been following Reform's national trajectory, this looks like a massive U-turn. Not long ago, the party high command tried to quietly distance itself from Middleton as his social media commentary veered deeper into far-right territory. Yet here we are, days before the June 18 polling date, with Kenyon proudly posting videos calling Middleton "one of my heroes" while Middleton urges voters to "get together, vote strategically and put this man in power."
Why the sudden pivot? It's simple arithmetic. Reform UK isn't just fighting Labour's big hitter Andy Burnham in Greater Manchester; it's fighting a brutal civil war on its right flank.
The Electoral Math Forcing Reform's Hand
To understand why Kenyon is embracing a figure as divisive as Middleton, you have to look at the leaked polling numbers that have sent shockwaves through the campaign offices.
A recent internal Labour poll published by the i newspaper exposes the exact nightmare scenario Nigel Farage wanted to avoid. The numbers show Labour leading at 35%, Reform at 24%, and Restore Britain sitting at a highly damaging 13%.
Restore Britain, the hard-right splinter party set up by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe after his spectacular falling out with Farage earlier this year, is eating Reform's lunch. That 13% isn't coming from Labour voters. It's being carved directly out of the anti-immigration, anti-establishment base that Kenyon needs to secure if he wants to pull off an upset.
Middleton's recent rhetoric aligns almost perfectly with Restore Britain's platform. He has repeatedly amplified their messaging on X, even endorsing their pledge to deport millions by commenting that an English mayor of London would "help flush them out." By getting Middleton on camera telling voters to vote strategically for Kenyon, Reform is trying to plug the leak and pull those voters back into the fold before Thursday.
A Legacy of Controversy
This strategic gamble carries massive risk. Middleton brings a mountain of personal and political baggage that Labour is already using as a blunt instrument to bash the Reform campaign.
Labour party chair Anna Turley didn't hold back, declaring that "Reform have no shame" and pointing directly to Middleton's past legal troubles. The former SAS: Who Dares Wins star was convicted in 2013 of unlawfully wounding a police officer and common assault. More recently, in 2025, he was hit with a company director ban after his business failed to pay over £1 million in taxes.
Then there are the online posts. Middleton's commentary on X has shifted significantly to the right since his 2021 split with Channel 4. He has openly stated that "You can't be a Muslim and be in charge of a Christian nation/city" and argued that first, second, and third-generation immigrants shouldn't hold top-tier government jobs. He has also been spotted standing alongside far-right activist Tommy Robinson at recent rallies.
For a party like Reform that has spent the last year trying to clean up its vetting process and present itself as a legitimate government-in-waiting, wrapping its arms around Middleton looks like a massive step backward.
Kenyon's Own Social Media Minefield
Of course, Kenyon isn't exactly a stranger to internet controversy himself. The local plumber and Wigan councillor has been dealing with his own fallout after the campaign group Hope Not Hate unearthed a series of historical online posts.
The findings didn't look good. Kenyon faced intense heat for endorsing crude remarks about broadcaster Carol Vorderman, using homophobic slurs, and suggesting women fabricates rape allegations to get abortions for "vanity purposes." In other forum posts, he admitted "I'm sexist, sorry but I am" and even suggested Russia was within its rights to annex Crimea.
While senior Reform figures like Danny Kruger tried to dismiss the comments as being taken out of context, a Survation poll of 503 Makerfield residents showed that 55% of local voters say offensive social media posts make them less likely to back a candidate.
What This Means for Makerfield and Westminster
The stakes in this byelection could not be higher, and the ripples will be felt far beyond Greater Manchester. This entire contest was triggered because the previous Labour MP, Josh Simons, stepped aside specifically to give Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham a path back into Parliament.
Burnham is playing a very high-stakes game. Winning Makerfield puts him back on the green benches of the House of Commons, positioning him perfectly for a future run at the Labour leadership if Keir Starmer's current troubles worsen. But to get there, he has to defeat a Reform party that swept every single council ward within the Makerfield constituency during the local elections just last month.
If Kenyon's embrace of Middleton successfully squeezes the Restore Britain vote, Reform could pull off a historic victory that shatters Labour's sense of security in its northern heartlands. If the gamble fails, and the right-wing vote remains split, Burnham cruises back to Westminster, and Reform's strategy of courting online firebrands will look like a desperate mistake.
If you are a voter in Makerfield, your next step is straightforward. Ignore the social media noise from national figures and check your local polling arrangements at the official Wigan Council website ahead of Thursday, June 18. The future direction of both major opposition movements in this country is resting on what happens in your polling booths.
The following video breaks down the core dynamics of the Makerfield contest, analyzing how the local demographics conflict with the personal popularity of the high-profile candidates on the ballot.
