Donald Trump says the brutal war in Ukraine is closer to an end than anyone realizes. Over the July 4th weekend, the US president held back-to-back phone calls with both Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He walked away from those conversations claiming that a breakthrough is right around the corner. "I think we're going to get it ended," Trump told reporters, insistently repeating that both Moscow and Kyiv are ready to sit down.
But if peace is so close, why did Russian missiles just rain down on Kyiv, killing over twenty people on the eve of the NATO summit in Ankara? You might also find this similar story useful: Inside The Wild International Grift Allegations Against Gaurav Srivastava.
That is the terrifying disconnect defining the conflict right now. On one hand, you have high-level diplomatic theater promising an imminent deal. On the other hand, you have a meat-grinder war that shows no signs of slowing down on the battlefield. To understand if Trump is just hyping up his negotiation skills or if a real peace deal is actually in the works, you have to look past the political grandstanding. You need to see what is happening behind closed doors and along the freezing frontlines.
The Secret Progress Behind the Scenes
Trump insists his latest ninety-minute call with Putin was highly productive. Skeptics easily dismiss this as typical bravado. But the reality is that negotiators have quietly laid a ton of groundwork over the past six months. As discussed in detailed coverage by TIME, the implications are widespread.
When Trump met Zelenskyy at his Florida resort late last year, they openly discussed a 20-point peace blueprint. At the time, Trump claimed the draft agreement was nearly ninety-five percent finished. Zelenskyy himself admitted that negotiators had agreed on roughly ninety percent of the framework.
The mechanism for peace is not a mystery anymore. The current proposal revolves around a few concrete steps.
- A temporary ceasefire lasting between sixty and ninety days.
- A massive demilitarized zone stretching along the current line of contact.
- A mutual withdrawal of heavy forces from the frontlines.
- A potential public referendum in Ukraine to decide the ultimate political fate of disputed territories.
Trump has deployed his own trusted envoys, including Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, to keep the channels open. They are prepared to fly directly to Moscow to nail down the remaining details. Trump claims Putin is feeling immense pressure and genuinely wants an exit strategy. Zelenskyy, facing a exhausted population and a battered power grid, wants it over too. The desire to stop the bleeding is real on both sides.
The Crimea Factor and Russia's Hidden Weakness
Why would Putin suddenly want out when Russian propaganda claims they are winning? Look at the economic and military strain inside Russia.
Ukraine changed its strategy recently. Instead of throwing soldiers into bloody frontal assaults against fortified Russian trenches, Kyiv used long-range drones and missiles to strike deep into Russian territory. They hammered oil refineries and disrupted vital energy infrastructure.
The results were immediate and devastating. In Crimea, the Russian-installed authorities had to declare a full state of emergency. They completely halted all fuel sales to civilians just to keep the military vehicles moving. In a rare moment of transparency, Putin even admitted to a Russian journalist that these Ukrainian deep strikes were causing serious problems for the Kremlin.
The Russian army is still confidently claiming victory in places like Kostyantynivka, a key stronghold in the Donetsk region. But Kyiv quickly called that claim a flat-out lie, insisting their troops still hold the city. The truth is that Russia's frontline advances have slowed down significantly. They are sacrificing thousands of troops to gain mere inches of ground. That kind of warfare is simply not sustainable forever, even for Putin.
The Ankara NATO Summit Showdown
The timing of Trump's announcement is not accidental. The annual NATO summit is kicking off in Ankara, Türkiye. This summit is turning into a massive pressure cooker.
New NATO chief Mark Rutte is trying to project a united front, but the fractures are obvious. Rutte keeps repeating the standard line that it takes two to tango and that Putin has consistently refused to sit down in good faith. Yet, behind the scenes, European leaders are panicking. They recognize that Europe cannot rely on Washington to fund and defend the continent indefinitely.
Zelenskyy is using the Ankara summit to demand immediate, strong decisions on air defense. The deadly strikes on Kyiv proved that Ukraine is still incredibly vulnerable to aerial bombardment. But the real action is happening on the sidelines. Zelenskyy and Trump are scheduled to meet face-to-face in Türkiye to hash out the final sticking points of the peace plan.
The Kremlin is watching closely. Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov already confirmed that Putin and Trump agreed to continue their direct contacts in the near future. The lines of communication are buzzing.
The Unresolved Disagreements That Could Ruin Everything
If ninety percent of the deal is done, why aren't the guns silent? Because the remaining ten percent contains the most explosive issues of the entire war.
First, look at the territorial demands. Putin wants Ukraine to formally hand over massive swaths of territory in the north of Donetsk oblast—areas his army has failed to capture on the battlefield. Zelenskyy cannot agree to that without facing a massive political backlash at home. Trading land for peace is a bitter pill that the Ukrainian public is not ready to swallow.
Second, there is the issue of security guarantees. If Ukraine signs a ceasefire and agrees to a demilitarized zone, what stops Putin from breaking the treaty and attacking again in five years? Ukraine wants ironclad security guarantees from the US and Europe. But Trump has repeatedly made it clear that he will not make any long-term American military commitments to defend Ukrainian soil. Without those guarantees, any peace deal is just a piece of paper.
Putin is also playing a double game. While his diplomatic advisers talk about a peaceful settlement, his military is launching desperate, brutal missile strikes on Ukrainian civilian centers. NATO officials believe these attacks are designed to terrorize Ukraine into submission right before the negotiations heat up. It is a classic thug tactic: talk peace, but keep hitting them until they break.
What Happens Next
Don't expect a sudden, magical peace treaty signed by the end of the week. The situation is far too volatile for an easy fix. But the diplomatic gears are turning faster than at any point since the war started. If you want to track where this conflict is actually heading, watch these specific indicators over the coming days.
Keep a close eye on the bilateral meetings in Ankara. If Trump and Zelenskyy emerge with a concrete timeline for a ceasefire, the pressure on Moscow will skyrocket. Watch the fuel crisis in Crimea. If Ukraine successfully cuts off Russian supply lines to the peninsula, Putin will be forced to lower his territorial demands. Finally, monitor whether Trump sends Witkoff and Kushner to Moscow. If those envoys land in Russia, it means the final five percent of the peace deal is actively being negotiated. The path to an ending is visible, but the final steps are always the most dangerous.
